Tân thiên long mobile

It shouldn’t come as a surprise khổng lồ know that Trung Quốc has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest gaming market – USD 21bn/ RMB 144bn to be precise.

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While Goldman Sachs estimates ~1.9x growth to lớn USD 41bn/RMB 281bn by 20đôi mươi, the current market construct is likely khổng lồ experience considerable change over this period (or at least for the smaller players that is).

Tencent (HK: 700) leads China’s điện thoại and PC gaming segments; solidified by its extensive sầu IPhường. catalogue, sophisticated distribution networks & diverse (yet dominant) social truyền thông platforms. On the other side of the coin, NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) continues to lớn focus its efforts on game development khổng lồ secure its top two status.

However, for Changyou (NASDAQ: CYOU) the future remains increasingly uncertain.

Changyou is a leading developer, operator & licensor of online PC and Mobile games. Originating as an internal division of Chinese mạng internet company, Sohu, Changyou was spun-off và listed on the NASDAQ in 2009. The crux of pessimism (bearish market sentiment) surrounding Changyou’s market relevance is its online gaming division & the associated laông xã of accelerated pace in effectively converting its PC users to lớn mobile.

Tian Long Ba Bu ("TLBB" / "TLBB 3D" / "Legacy TLBB")

Historically, Changyou has targeted PC gamers at the sacrifice of poor penetration inkhổng lồ the di động gaming space. Its most popular PC title of eight-years, ‘TLBB’, has seen management turn to lớn stricter cost controls, fewer updates, less patches và collective innovation to push its agenda. As PC gaming continues lớn slowdown in Trung Quốc, conversely the Chinese di động gaming market enters its mature phase. Intense competition, together with low barriers to lớn entry is expected lớn slow growth in the Mobile gaming market. Hence, the number of di động gaming developers have increased by ~144% khổng lồ 31 800 within a two-year period ending Q4 2015.

While Changyou has released the mobile version of ‘TLBB’ (‘TLBB 3D’), it fails lớn capture fan’s interests as there is only 60%/70% correlation in gameplay. Resultantly, this has reduced the pace of di động migration due khổng lồ a laông chồng of direct similarities in the offerings.In response, Changyou has partnered with Tencent lớn launch ‘Legacy TLBB’, benefitting from Tencent’s strong distribution channel & big data analytical services. ‘Legacy TLBB’ emphasises social interaction, which ‘TLBB 3D’ lacked. The game is expected lớn be launched by the end of năm nhâm thìn, or in early 2017.

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While the partnership entails a revenue-sharing agreement, this is likely khổng lồ attract larger amounts of gross billing & should drive Changyou’s revenues as they enter inlớn their rebuild phase. Tencent is positioned as the world’s number one gaming company (‘League of Legends’), with the market clout khổng lồ combine high ARPU (RMB 155 – RMB 165, quận 1 2016) with high levels of monthly active sầu users (1 379.5mn Mobile QQ và Weixin/WeChat MAU, Q1 2016) to generate strong returns. This is particularly pertinent in the current market climate, as the average monthly Mobile game spending distribution has moved upwards from RMB 11 – RMB 50 to lớn greater than RMB 50 per user. Furthermore, the general threshold of playing hours has increased 2x to lớn between sixty & one hundred and twenty minutes per user.

Strategic Roadmap – sản phẩm điện thoại Gaming

In the past we’ve seen Tencent (‘The Legkết thúc of MIR2’) & NetEase (‘Fantasy Westward Journey’ & ‘Westward Journey Online’) successfully transition into lớn the Mobile gaming space.

Changyou currently has approximately twenty new Mobile gaming titles in development. Ten titles are expected khổng lồ be internally tested và reviewed in 2H năm nhâm thìn (including ‘Searching for Emperor Qing’, ‘Legover of Sword’,’ Fairy 5’ và ‘Duke of Mount Deer’), with three games scheduled lớn be released during this period. However, it has placed greater emphasis on being prudent with its game launches & related rollout strategies, affecting the projected speed of rollout. This clearly shows that the business is learning from past mistakes và is a step in the right direction.

A primary example is Changyou’s launch of non-MMO sản phẩm điện thoại games, ‘Dashfire’ and ‘Twin of Brothers’ in Q2 năm ngoái. This yielded weaker-than-expected results due to lớn an unpolished launch chiến dịch, the enforcing of demanding distribution channels (monetisation) and an underlying lachồng of understanding in the non-MMO sản phẩm điện thoại gaming space. This example is prevalent to lớn shaping Changyou’s future rollout strategy as it looks lớn expand inkhổng lồ less familiar genres (RPG, ARPG, FPS & CCG) over the forthcoming year.

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The Bottom Line

Rebuilding their gaming portfolio & overall corporate strategy; Changyou’s focus on creating top games, securing large amounts of intellectual property và strong underlying mass marketing campaigns could encourage a turnaround. Inevitably, the focal point should continue to lớn be on long-term user retention with the intention to lớn grow this user base và maximise monetisation.

The biggest challenge impacting Changyou’s bottom line is the ability and pace lớn convert current PC users khổng lồ thiết bị di động, while simultaneously attracting new sản phẩm điện thoại users. This presents two further challenges as (1) unfamiliarity with new games will affect average revenue per user (ARPU) generated from legacy users and (2) the stickiness of familiar gaming titles will affect take-up. It must be pointed out that the market has typically underappreciated the stickiness of PC gaming; which traditionally has a higher paying ratio, higher ARPU, longer lifecycle of gamers và stronger barriers to lớn entry when compared to lớn thiết bị di động & web games (PC user retention rate of 30 minutes per session versus sản phẩm điện thoại user retention rate of 3 to 5 minutes per session).

Inevitably, a lot is easier said than done. The likelihood of sustainability in the above remains khổng lồ be realised. Nevertheless, should Changyou nurture its ‘TLBB’ franchise and successfully condition its Mobile gaming development efforts (amuốn other revenue channels); it is more likely than not that it may make a suitable acquisition target (for Tencent) as the market organically consolidates over time.

Chuyên mục: Tin Tức
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